The Greater Turbulence Of Exchange Rate Will Come From 2014 To 2015.

The appreciation of RMB P also affects the large inflow of international a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > financial capital < /a >.

They borrowed dollars and yen to enter the Chinese market, enjoying a 3.25% interest rate, plus an annual appreciation of about 4%, plus an annual investment of about 12% of the real estate market.

Rough calculation, in the past few years, their annual yield is around 19%.

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< p > export private enterprises are downstream, the market, the upstream is state-owned enterprises, coal, petrochemical, electricity, raw materials and other industries.

Export is blocked, and the growth rate of SOEs is slowing down. Therefore, in order to maintain market share, SOEs only sell at a reduced price.

So we saw that PPI's factory price index was negative for 24 consecutive months.

SOEs can only be digested from three aspects, one is cost, two is cost, and three is profit.

The profit growth rate of state-owned enterprises declined, so we saw that the stock index was weak for several years, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6124 to 2004 now, and the stock market wealth of more than 2/3 was wiped out.

The bigger the companies, the harder they fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index 50 fell by more than 70%.

The US and European stock indexes have reached a record high.

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< p > 2012 and 2013, China's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > export < /a > the growth rate was only 7.9%. According to the export growth rate of the first 10 years, only 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2013 were below 20%. Therefore, we think that under normal circumstances, the export growth rate of China is 20%.

If calculated at a rate of 20%, China exported less than US $229 billion 731 million in 2012, and exports less than US $524 billion 384 million in 2013, which is equivalent to less than 32000 billion in GDP.

It affects 5.63%.

Otherwise China's GDP growth rate was 8.13% last year.

This is not consumption and investment.

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Less than P, exports are affected, and consumption growth declines.

Because the vast majority of migrant workers are working in coastal export-oriented enterprises, it is more and more difficult for employers to earn money, and their income growth is not high enough.

The huge number of migrant workers has no habit of saving money, and the impact of wage income on their consumption is immediate.

Therefore, we see that in recent years, the growth rate of consumption has declined sharply, from 25% in 2010 to 11.8% in 2014.

Even if we calculate by 18%, consumption will be affected by exports last year, spending less than 10087 billion, affecting GDP about 0.14 points.

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< p > the sharp decline in consumption growth will inevitably affect the government's revenue.

China exports little tax revenue, because it will refund the tax return.

Consumption is one of the forms of GDP's final realization.

According to China's GDP tax rate, roughly 23%.

If all fees are charged, that is more than that.

By the end of 2013, China's monthly consumption data was roughly 21000 billion, and the consumption growth rate in February 2014 was only 11.8%, less than half of the peak period.

According to 12 points, that is 252 billion, according to 23% tax rate, that is 58 billion, 12 months in the whole year, that is 700 billion.

That is to say, our general estimate is that the growth rate of China's exports has declined, and the government's revenue has been reduced by less than 700 billion a year through consumption.

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< p > government < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > revenue < /a > decline, investment growth will inevitably decline.

If 700 billion of the financial revenue is converted into investment, it will be 2 trillion according to 35% of its own funds and 65% of bank matching funds.

The impact of GDP is about 0.28 points.

In 2013, China's fixed assets investment was 436528 billion, which estimated that the total investment in fixed assets in China would be about 4.58%.

In January and February 2014, the growth rate of fixed assets investment was only 17.9%, which was equivalent to a decrease of about 0.82 percentage points.

That is to say, if it is not the impact of declining consumption, China's fixed asset investment growth in January and February will be about 18.72%.

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< p > the three one plus will affect China's GDP by about 0.82 percentage points, otherwise the GDP growth rate will be 8.5% last year.

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"P" is so careless that we can see that everyone, including experts and scholars, may be overly aware of the impact of exports on China's economy.

Your estimate is seriously inadequate.

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P, therefore, the impact of exports on China is not single.

Its effect is the continuous ring effect.

Therefore, we can see that the central bank started the depreciation of the RMB in February this year, the aim is to save the export temporarily.

And this process will be very painful, because depreciation is a no return road.

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